Dice: the reports of their bias is greatly exaggerated.

[Cambrian]

I wanted to get a discussion on dice. Specifically some of the misinformation surrounding dice.

We all know dice are an integral part of playing Warmahordes. They are readily available and generally fool proof to use randomization devices for the game. Dice provide that element of uncertainty the is missing from game like chess. They create moments of epic long shots or by all rights impossible failures. And while they sometimes let us down when we need them most I would not trade their suspenseful touch for anything else.

With dice however there is a great deal of misinformation. I'm not talking about just general superstition but uncritically accepted misinformation about dice.

While not the only myth surrounding dice my personal pet peeve dice myth is that cheap dice roll 1's more often. In reality cheap dice tend to be less fair than more expensive dice. Fair, in this usage, means the rolls are evenly distributed. A theoretically perfectly fair 6 sided die would be equally likely to roll one number as another. In reality all dice are unfair; even the best dice are only fair to a acceptable margin. What is important is that a dice is reasonably fair;or to put it another way the difference in the probabilities of each outcome is close enough to be negligible.

Now the most often cited source for a myth I've seen revolves around an internet hoax involving chessex brand dice (probably the most commonly used dice brand). The hoax deserves credit as a masterful event in trolling history. The hoax originally appeared as a forum post on Warseer (a GW game oriented message board) describing an elaborate experiment (the poster claiming to be an academic assisted by grad students) involving the rolling and recording of thousands of dice rolls. The original post is quite easy to find with a google search if anyone is interested. The results of the experiment claim that the dice were so unfair they rolled 1's 29% percent of the time; this claim is crap. It is often held as truth. But it is crap and so easy to falsify it is inexcusable that it has persisted for so long.

lets look at why this is so obviously false:

first lets look at a perfectly fair dice:
100% / 6 = 16.667%, so a fair dice should roll each side 16.667% of the time


At 29% there is a remaining 71% divided up between the remaining possible outcomes.

71% / 5 = 14.2%, this means that the average probability of all other numbers is 14.2%


and so for a comparison:

29% / 14.2% = 2.042, so if this study is true a chessex dice will roll a 1 more than twice as often as the average of any of the other numbers*.

*actually this is not strictly true but would require an even more warped dice, even at 29% for any certain side the dice would have to be quite noticeably aberrant

I'm sure most readers out there have chessex dice of their own; as I mentioned they are extremely common. If you do, I recommend you pick some up and do several dozen test rolls recording the results. Because the extreme degree of predicted divergence from fair rolling it should take relatively few tosses for the claim to be revealed as a hoax.



But there is a second part of the hoax that just adds to my contempt; this hoax is also used as a method to push the use of casino dice as a better alternative. Now, before I go further, I do realize that casino dice are more fair than standard dice; it is a fact no reasonable person should dispute since they are manufactured to precise specifications. What I do find annoying is that casino dice in general are very impractical for table top war gaming.

Casino dice, when used in the casino setting, are used in a very specific way. On a craps table the dice are aggressively tossed so that they bounce off of a back wall. This is done to prevent any players from perform dice techniques; a method by which a player rolls a dice in a certain way to bias the outcome of the roll. Dropping a dice rather than rolling it forward with force with not result in a fair roll. Craps dice compared to the inexpensive mold dice most players use are more vulnerable to the use of dice techniques since the straight edges reduce the amount of rolling; this is exactly why casino's require the dice to be tossed a distance and bounced off a wall.

Now the issue is that in most games dice are rolled on the game table with the models and terrain where aggressive rolling is most likely to result in chipped paint jobs and hurt feelings. There are way to get around this (for example a rolling cup) but really the gains in fairness are minuscule compared to the loss in practicality.




TL;DR: Dice are generally fair and expensive dice offer little advantage over cheap ones. Critical thinking should be applied to everything; especially on the internet.

Thanks for your time. I hope it does something to combat some of the misinformation out there... Also anyone else have anything to add to this? Other dice based misconceptions/hoaxes/or even just interesting facts? I'd love to hear more.

[Xarian]

You can disprove the study with more evidence, but a couple of fractions doesn't disprove anything. The 29% number may well be far off, but your 'proof' is a joke. Did you even notice that 100 - 29 is 71, not 61, for example? If you can't be bothered to do basic math like this, why would anyone take you seriously?

[Cambrian]

That's not a proof and I never claimed the fractions were a proof. It was an example of just how far off the numbers would need to be to match the hoax. They are there so that you can have some idea of what to look for when you test it yourself.

Thanks for catching the arithmetic error (its 5:00 AM and I'm grinding through some insomnia), but that does not mean the hoax is any less an obvious hoax. And I'd hope people would take me seriously because outside of a single arithmetic error the rest of the post is logical and backed by the empirical results (again test it yourself).

You come off a bit hostile; you don't happen to roll casino dice do you?

[x3tsniper]

The dice gods do not favor you! Pray to the dice gods!

[Murkhadh]

You're going to have to provide more proof than this to be able to call that study "crap"or a "hoax". In my own experience, switching to dice without rounded corners and pips has produced far more even results.

[MathPasta]

Guys hes trolling you. Its just a joke.

[Xarian]

You come off a bit hostile; you don't happen to roll casino dice do you?

Actually, I use Chessex dice (shared with my opponent so it's fair). I'm very passionate about logic and the scientific process, however, and your post doesn't contain any.

[HeadHunter]

Critical thinking should be applied to everything; especially on the internet.

Except, of course, for the original post - any attempts will be met with aspersion and allegations of bias.

[kolonelk]

This is always a horrible, horrible discussion because the two camps never seem to see eye to eye. Personally I hate casino dice because there seems to be a much higher risk of damage to minis due to overzealous rolling. I've also seen a lot of sets with dinged up edges/corners, they can't still be perfectly balanced.

[whats82]

Casino dice also have a higher tendency of damaging terrain due to their sharp edges and corners.

One good thing I've noticed with casino dice is that in video battle reports, it's easy to see the casino dice rolled even if it's shot at a distance and at low resolution, which is nice given that most videos tend to have so much background noise that it's difficult to discern the dice sometimes.

[MagnustheJust]

>goes into trance and starts speaking in unearthly deep bass voice<

The Mighty Dice God D-6 is not amused...

[SillySod]

Lets take this in a more interesting direction...

Does anyone know why dice towers and dice cups are hated on by the UK Warmachine crowd?

Its weird, at the masters everyone seemed using really dodgy custom dice (myself included) but dice towers and dice cups were frowned upon with frowny faces. It seems weird to me because, if anything, a dice tower rolls dice alot more fairly than most limp wristed nerds can manage. What gives?

[Chip]

During my game on Saturday, I rolled hideously badly until I threatened to microwave my army in front of my dice. After this, I consistently rolled well!

Clearly, this is proof that dice react to threatened survivor's guilt.

[MagnustheJust]

Lets take this in a more interesting direction...

Does anyone know why dice towers and dice cups are hated on by the UK Warmachine crowd?

Its weird, at the masters everyone seemed using really dodgy custom dice (myself included) but dice towers and dice cups were frowned upon with frowny faces. It seems weird to me because, if anything, a dice tower rolls dice alot more fairly than most limp wristed nerds can manage. What gives?

You have snarkcastically answered your own question...

[cwh008]

i use the dice from an old Yatzee game.

[x3tsniper]

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_no...rds=dice+tower
Go forth and prosper!
I need to find my yatzhee game somewhere this week and dig the cup out. I am so sick of rolling my dice off the table. ><

[SillySod]

You have snarkcastically answered your own question...

"Dice towers are fair" -> therefore -> "dicetowers are frowned upon" is not a tautology.

There must be a reason they are explicitely banned from multiple tournaments and I'd like to know what that reason is.

[yastobaal]

So I've posted this little segment before, and will be again.

"Dice, the part we all rely upon in this hobby. I'm fascinated to see all the little quirks people have when then roll their dice. I've seen using one pair until they fail, then they go in a discard pile and a new pairing is created. Or as soon as a set roll extremely high they get discarded before they roll low on the next throw.

Anyways, on to other things. I'm slightly surprised that nobody has brought out the dakka article that is suppose to be from a university engineer. I say suppose to be as I have no proof either way and somebody over on the Focus and Fury (NSFW language) doesn't believe the article. So over on the pp forums themselves somebody has found this .pdf which I find has greater creditability than somebody who likes to swear over on forums. Pages 7 and 8 contain the results and the quote that the results "leave little doubt the dice results are biased." They also measured the dimensions of the dice and found that most had variations in lengths of sides.

So the GameScience Dice maker is right about other dice having poor quality and building a tower easily shows this to punters. The pdf I linked to also seems to say that having pips cut out doesn't affect the rolls as people think. So we have the Dakka Dakka article saying that the pips affect the weight, the pdf saying it doesn't and the GameScience guy saying it's down to the imprecise manufacture of dice.

Personally, I can see that the imbalance of the pips removed weight or the imprecision of the sides could be the reason for the bias. What I do see is that cheap dice are not random enough for me. So I went and spent some money. I did my research and found that I had two main options, casino dice or backgammon dice as both these have to be fair as they are used for gambling. Both have to be thrown in a specific way though, be that against a wall in craps or in a dice cup for backgammon. As a dice cup is better for the environment of wargaming I went for the slightly more expensive route of backgammon dice. That said, I generally just throw them like normal as I haven't the skills to manipulate dice like some people."

It's even been discussed over on steamforged. The end result for me is use what you want but always be willing to let your opponent borrow your dice, just to make things fair.

[Spyde]

OP is just trolling.

When he can set up a test, and disprove the numbers.
Rather then omg Hoax.

I ditched my chissex die, for Koplox squard die. And the numbers are alot more average.

[MagnustheJust]

"Dice towers are fair" -> therefore -> "dicetowers are frowned upon" is not a tautology.

There must be a reason they are explicitely banned from multiple tournaments and I'd like to know what that reason is.

As I hear the rumor, miniature tournaments are at a similar decibel level to chess tournaments in the UK. Thus the extra noise {and fairness of rolls...} is less desirable.

[GreenJello]

I'm sure most readers out there have chessex dice of their own; as I mentioned they are extremely common. If you do, I recommend you pick some up and do several dozen test rolls recording the results.

Actually I've done this. Got bored, and heard one to many times that my dice rolled high. So I wrote down the results for the whole cube for 10-15 rolls, and they were pretty much in keeping with the results for the scientific study. (A bit on the low side) Oh and this was before this study came out.

Still use Chessex for 40K, since I really need a brick, but for Warmachine the casino dice are perfect: easy to read, and more "fair".

If there really is a problem with hitting models with the larger casino dice I recommend getting a box or something to roll into.

Only real issue is that you might run into a mechanic, at which point the casino dice are nolonger random. But I don't go to major tourney's and none of the locals can be bothered to put in the effort to cheat that way.

[Tyr852]

They see me trollin , they hatin even in your TLDR point you said they might offer more of an advantage of rolling average ..like dice should ?

I use casino dice now that I switched to Warmachine as it's far more reasonable then the bucket o dice approach of other games and I still have yet to hurt a mini or come close to it , piece of terrain or player with them (pro tip they are dice not buck shot).

Anyhow *gets popcorn as these threads always deliver*

[Hai-pe-neki]

Lets take this in a more interesting direction...

Does anyone know why dice towers and dice cups are hated on by the UK Warmachine crowd?

Its weird, at the masters everyone seemed using really dodgy custom dice (myself included) but dice towers and dice cups were frowned upon with frowny faces. It seems weird to me because, if anything, a dice tower rolls dice alot more fairly than most limp wristed nerds can manage. What gives?

Probably because adding even just 3-5 seconds to every tough roll you are called to make (don't know well cups and towers, but i suppose that "Shake the cup, turn the cup, raise the cup, see the result" or "Put a dice inside the tower, let it fall, read the result" is a bit longer that a simple roll in front of you) might be quite heavy in a timed game!

Just a supposition

[x3tsniper]

Probably because adding even just 3-5 seconds to every tough roll you are called to make (don't know well cups and towers, but i suppose that "Shake the cup, turn the cup, raise the cup, see the result" or "Put a dice inside the tower, let it fall, read the result" is a bit longer that a simple roll in front of you) might be quite heavy in a timed game!

Just a supposition

This sounds truthful. I may still find that cup to use up at the shop for normal games. I hate losing my dice on the floor. Had dice hit the floor 4 times last Friday, as I try to make sure my dice move on the table.

[Cambrian]

Many posters here need to take a step back and think about what it was my post was actually suggesting. I'm not saying what I wrote was science; actually what I wrote would be the first step of the scientific process: the formulation of a hypothesis. What I wanted to do was to provide a framework where you could go out and test the results. I showed you how according to the Hoax you should expect to see 1's roughly twice as often as the average of the other numbers.

Ask yourself this: if someone posts on the internet that they tested something and found X, and someone counters saying they too tested it and found it was actually Y, what good is that to anyone here? You'll still be stuck trusting the word of someone without any good reason one way or the other.

So what I did is I broke down the proposed odds to show what you should expect to see if the 29% hoax was true so that anyone can test it for themselves. I never claimed my bit of math was science; it was logic. I also said that cheap dice are generally less fair; but, I have done tests and demonstrated for myself the level of fairness is acceptable for the needs of a wargamer.

Once more: test it for yourselves. The best way to be sure is to stop trusting some random poster hiding behind an internet alias and determine the truth for yourself.

PS - a dice cup/tower is an extremely useful tool for players who do want to have maximum fairness on dice but not deal with the rolling impracticalities of Casino dice.

[Tyr852]

I don't have the means to do thousands of test rolls which for something like this you'd need a sample base of

[dboeren]

Dice towers and cups are slow, so I assume they're disliked for that reason. Slowing down the game is annoying.

Personally, I also dislike dice with non-standard symbols. Some of them put the symbol on the 1. Others put the symbol on the 6. No way to tell which kind it is without checking that specific die. It's not all about rolling fairly, it's about everyone being able to quickly and correctly read the result of the die too.

[rwould]

I can't rationally explain my hatred for dice cups other than the noises annoy me. And the shaking of the table as if an Ironclad has just set a tremor off. Don't mind Dice Towers though, they are cool

As for needing casino dice that is just paranoia. A die will roll a series of good rolls and a series of bad rolls. Some players get paranoid over that series of bad rolls and blame their dice. It is statistics; it happens. Whilst some dice will be naturally weighted it is not many that will be weighted to the level it will influence a game.

This is from someone who has painted a lot of dice to match army colours and have tested most of my dice across (at least) a thousand rolls just in case they are weighted. I've never found one that in reality is enough off the curve to be considered weighted where you would notice it.

[Da-Rock]

If you believe in Noetic science then any brand of dice is meaningless

[J. Beatnik]

I just buy chessex dice that match my figs. My Cygnar use the swirly blue and gold set, and my Circle use the swirly green and brown set. Far as I'm concerned, they're completely random. They'll screw me some days, and they'll win for me some days.

[Cambrian]

I don't have the means to do thousands of test rolls which for something like this you'd need a sample base of

That's just it; you don't need to do thousands of rolls to get results that satisfactorily disprove the hoax. You wouldn't even need 500. The divergence from a fair dice is so great it should become obvious after a couple hundred rolls.

I'm not asking you to prove your dice are fair. I asking you to test and see that the dice are not as unfair as the hoax claims. What you will likely find is they are reasonably fair and statistical analysis will show that the results are within the statistically normal bounds.

[PG_Asa]

I've said it before, and will say it in every post. The best way to get rid of ones on dice is to take them to the strip club!

[SillySod]

Probably because adding even just 3-5 seconds to every tough roll you are called to make (don't know well cups and towers, but i suppose that "Shake the cup, turn the cup, raise the cup, see the result" or "Put a dice inside the tower, let it fall, read the result" is a bit longer that a simple roll in front of you) might be quite heavy in a timed game!

Thats a fair guess but it certainly isnt the case!

Part of the reason I purchased a dice tower recently was because I was impressed with how swift it was. Part of the speed is the fact that both you and your opponent know where the dice are going to end up, and part of the speed is down to the fact that it rolls dice pretty fast - if you give dice a proper roll then you wouldnt beat it. Not to mention the reduction in cocked dice

So... it doesnt appear to be fairness and it doesnt appear to be speed... is volume really the reason?

[Hint of Insanity]

The dice gods do not favor you! Pray to the dice gods!

Pah! the dice gods have no use for your foolish prayers, what they desire is blood!

[Breadsmith]

If you want to get rid of ones on dice, play a rousing game of tabletop Blood Bowl with them. The dice will be tired of ones in no time.

[Lord of Death]

I just buy chessex dice that match my figs. My Cygnar use the swirly blue and gold set, and my Circle use the swirly green and brown set. Far as I'm concerned, they're completely random. They'll screw me some days, and they'll win for me some days.

This is me right here.

[GreenJello]

I'm not asking you to prove your dice are fair. I asking you to test and see that the dice are not as unfair as the hoax claims. What you will likely find is they are reasonably fair and statistical analysis will show that the results are within the statistically normal bounds.

Done this, found it matches study, you ignore this result. I'm beginning to believe the claims of "troll" are accurate.

Further, claiming that something that is presented in a very authoritative manner is a hoax, without offering counter proof is not very convincing.

[rivenwyrm]

I actually did a statistical analysis of my Chessex dice a while back. Rolled a group of 6 dice 90 times (as a group). I found that the average of the group was very slightly below 3.5 (about 3.42) over that sample size. Obviously, this may reflect that some die are skewed up and some are skewed down, but 540 rolls was enough to convince me that as a whole Chessex dice are close enough to average for use in a wargame. You could certainly get a batch that is skewed up or down (a friend of mine has the same color patterned dice and is either the luckiest man alive or has skewed dice), but it's unlikely to be serious.

[HeadHunter]

Ask yourself this: if someone posts on the internet that they tested something and found X, and someone counters saying they too tested it and found it was actually Y, what good is that to anyone here?

There is so much irony in this statement, you could build a Colossal with it. So, you're saying we shouldn't take anyone's word for anything? Fair enough. And if one person says X and another says Y, it's a waste of time altogether?

The best way to be sure is to stop trusting some random poster hiding behind an internet alias and determine the truth for yourself.

Since you're just another random poster like everyone else, what's the point of the thread? You don't need to tell people to find out for themselves - either they will, or they won't.

[ColdYinTiger]

The dice gods make my scattergunners never die and my champs fall over to the lightest breeze. They seem to adore it when I make power attacks, especially when slamming or throwing models into other ones, but I cannot hit the broad side of a barn with high MAT models.