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Thread: "Victim Stats"?

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    Annihilator Ephraim's Avatar
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    Default "Victim Stats"?

    I hear the term "victim stats" get used from time to time but I'm not really sure what different people mean by it. I understand, conceptually, that it means a model that will die to any directed effort (and sometimes as collateral damage). Numerically, what qualifies?

    For example, I play Cryx, and I'm told that Revenant Crew of the Atramentous has victim stats.
    DEF 13, ARM 12

    Using them as an example, what's the lowest ARM that a DEF 13 single-wound warrior needs not to be a victim? What's the lowest DEF that an ARM 12 would need? What's the lowest pairing of DEF and ARM together that qualifies as "not a victim"? How, if at all, do multiple wounds affect that designation?

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    It's context dependant. A single infantry who have def 13 is never really a victim for me, because the ARM stat of most infantry is irrelevant. 12 begin to be a victim if he is not like ARM 17+

    But the thing is, in some matchup I would be willing to say that def 13 is pityful. The price per body is also very relevant ; a slinger (8 points for 6) at 13/12 feel more resilient than the arcanist corps, who is 11/16 but at 7 points for 3.

    Multiple wound don't factor for me. If it have victim stats and 5 HP he is still a victim. If the HP are relevant, he wouldn't be a victim at 1 HP.

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    Haven't thought about it that much, but off the cuff I'd consider "to hit stat 6" and "damage stat 12" to be the average. So you need to survive against that the majority of the time. That would mean DEF higher than 13 and/or ARM higher than 19 for single-wound troops.

    Multi-wound for me needs to, at the very least, survive a charging or boosted POW 12 attack. So at 5 wounds you'd need at least ARM 18 base.

    All of this should be without any buffs.
    Last edited by razcalking; 01-11-2017 at 11:36 AM.

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    The best explanation I've heard for the concept involves dying on average to really weak attacks.

    Taking Stormblade Infantry for example: DEF 12/ARM 15 with one wound means a Stormblade has better than average odds of dying to a RAT 5/POW 10 ranged attack, which are not uncommon among the various factions.
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    Destroyer of Worlds Malkav13's Avatar
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    I've yet to find a consistent criteria for it as well. A lot of it depends on what you are facing as well. If everything is MAT/RAT 6, then 13 means you are hit around half of the time. 14 then becomes above average. If it is MAT/RAT 7, then 14 is hit more easily.
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    Not to insult anyone specifically, but by reading through some posts, I think some people think their models should be around def 18+, arm 20+ before they're even playable.

    Def 14 is the point that a mat/rat 7 model is about 50/50 to hit.
    Arm 15 puts a model at a point where you can start thinking about them surviving blast damage, an important concern against many factions.
    At 13/12, a model is pretty easily hit by non-boosting, non aimed attacks, and dies pretty reliably to blast damage.
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    For me, and as I see the forums, victim stat seems 'easily killed by mundane ranged weapons.' Usually, many ranged units have RAT 5 by default and their POW is 10 to 11. So, units that has their end DEF is 12 or less, and ARM 16 or less will be fell into the victim stat. Units that able to have DEF 13+ or ARM 17+ by themselves are not considered as the victim stat unit.

    Even DEF 13/ARM 11 troops are suvives slightly better(actually, about 0.5% more) than DEF 12/ARM 16 troooger when against RAT 5 POW 11 military rifle - 13/11 hits by 41.66% and damaged by 100% =41.666% to be killed, but 12/16 hits by 58.33% and damaged by 72.22% = 42.129% to be killed. Even the top end victim stat can't survives better than a 13/11 trooper(actually they can survives better against POW 10, though).

    In MKII, even 13/12 Long Gunners are durable than 12/15 Stormblade Infantry/Stormguards. Long Gunners are DEF 12 now, though.
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    Victim stats means a model dies more than half the time to a Mat/Rat 5 Pow 10 which is generally considered the lowest common denominator.
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    Quote Originally Posted by razcalking View Post
    Haven't thought about it that much, but off the cuff I'd consider "to hit stat 6" and "damage stat 12" to be the average. So you need to survive against that the majority of the time. That would mean DEF higher than 13 and/or ARM higher than 19 for single-wound troops.

    Multi-wound for me needs to, at the very least, survive a charging or boosted POW 12 attack. So at 5 wounds you'd need at least ARM 18 base.

    All of this should be without any buffs.
    This actually gives me a good method to devise a formula for victim stats. "If it can survive a MAT 6/P+S 12 attack 50% of the time, it's not a victim."

    A DEF 13 model is hit by MAT 6 58.3% of the time. It needs to survive the P+S 12 damage roll 14.29% of the time to qualify - that is, it needs to survive on a 2, 3 or 4. DEF 13 requires ARM 17 not to be a victim.

    Extending the calculation to MAT 5/P+S 10, Revenant Crew is no longer a victim by those criteria because more than 50% of shots miss outright and 2.8% of shots that hit don't kill.

    Let's check MAT 5/P+S 10 vs. Stormblade Infantry, DEF 12/ARM 15. 58.33% chance to hit. 72.22% chance to wound on hit. Total odds of survival: 57.9%. They don't qualify either. Are 5/10 really the right numbers to use?
    Last edited by Ephraim; 01-11-2017 at 11:51 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Magnissae View Post
    The best explanation I've heard for the concept involves dying on average to really weak attacks.

    Taking Stormblade Infantry for example: DEF 12/ARM 15 with one wound means a Stormblade has better than average odds of dying to a RAT 5/POW 10 ranged attack, which are not uncommon among the various factions.
    I've heard this with regards to Stormblade typically. Victem stats refers to that kind of infantry. They don't have enough DEF to avoid getting hit, and when they do get hit they don't have enough ARM to avoid dying.


    MAT 6 POW 10 will hit stormblades on 6+ and kill them on 6+ as well, 72% on each. So 52% of all such attacks against them. As MAT gets better or POW gets higher, they just die all the easier.


    Going from DEF 12 to 13 improves their overall survivability by about 10%. Bumping them to ARM 17 (say by defensive line) improves their survival by about 20%.


    Hence victem stats - Stats that are more a formality and won't truely save you from most attacks.


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    Destroyer of Worlds Stormpuppy_Infantry's Avatar
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    Is there that much RAT 6/POW 12 attacks? The most common ranged weapon I can see is the military rifles(RAT 5/POW 11), and the next one is crossbow(RAT 6/POW 10). Can you give me the name of RAT 6 POW 12 attacks in the game? Especially for the units. All I can remember are Charger and Cyclone, but they are warjacks.
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    Destroyer of Worlds Junn Khan's Avatar
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    Victim stats largely depend on the model and what it's supposed to do. Sevy1 has victim stats for a caster. Stormblades have victim stats for hard hitting infantry. Arcuarii have victim stats for multiwound models.

    Basically it means they die easily and it can vary very widely but hard stat numbers aren't common. 15 def 13 armor would be good for infantry but victim for casters.
    Last edited by Junn Khan; 01-11-2017 at 11:58 AM.
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    Rat 6 Pow 12 is Circle Woldstalkers (that are also magical). Rat 7 Pow 10 Hunter is 2 Man CRA Reeves which can also happen a fair bit.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stormpuppy_Infantry View Post
    Is there that much RAT 6/POW 12 attacks? The most common ranged weapon I can see is the military rifles(RAT 5/POW 11), and the next one is crossbow(RAT 6/POW 10). Can you give me the name of RAT 6 POW 12 attacks in the game? Especially for the units. All I can remember are Charger and Cyclone, but they are warjacks.
    warspears are rat 6 pow 13. quite a few things are rat 5, pow 10 with cra. As I recall, long gunners have cra and ROF 2. That means a 10 man unit could take 10 cra shots, and possibly kill off an entire 10 man unit opposing them. winter guard are pow 12 or so, and can get +2 to hit from a UA possibly?
    I'm not sure I'd call rat 6 pow 12 an average, but there's certainly a fair bit of it in the game. Not to mention all of those non-playable melee units that are mat 6 or 7 and p+s at least 12.
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    Invictors meet that profile, there are things like stormblade guns and winterguard infantry who have 5-12 but also a big downside in range so its not that frequent a base statline overall. 5-10 CRA is probably the most common as just about every faction has a unit with those guns.

    Once you start factoring in buffs and debuffs though using something like 6-12 or 7-12 to get an idea of unit survivability against single target shots is probably not a bad idea even though that statline itself is not that common, add in pow 7 or 8 for generic blasts or possibly even 10 if e-leaps or high explosives become common, but it has to be treated as just a guide rather then gospel.

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    Destroyer of Worlds Stormpuppy_Infantry's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by vaildin View Post
    warspears are rat 6 pow 13. quite a few things are rat 5, pow 10 with cra. As I recall, long gunners have cra and ROF 2. That means a 10 man unit could take 10 cra shots, and possibly kill off an entire 10 man unit opposing them. winter guard are pow 12 or so, and can get +2 to hit from a UA possibly?
    I'm not sure I'd call rat 6 pow 12 an average, but there's certainly a fair bit of it in the game. Not to mention all of those non-playable melee units that are mat 6 or 7 and p+s at least 12.
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    CRA isn't a problem at all, for most CRA can threaten most troopers without a damage box easily. But most 'victim stat' troopers are quite easily killed by normal shot without aim and without CRA. Ten Long Gnners can make 5 CRAs and able to kill a 12/18 trooper by about 48% per each shot. But they can kill a 12/15 trooper by 42% per each shot even if they does not make C4A and make 10 individual shots.
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    I would set the bar at MAT/RAT 6, POW 10 personally. If you die more than half of the time to that, then there are a lot of effects in the game that will mass kill your models.

    DEF 12 ARM 15 with a single wound is a good example. There are a lot of models with that statline and they tend to die very easily. DEF 13 ARM 12 also dies easily by those stats. DEF 13 ARM 14 however falls below the threshold.

    As other people have noted, ARM barely matters for single wound troops until they get to the 18+ territory except for a minor bump around DEF 14 where you start to shrug off blast damage reasonably well.
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    Thinking further about this, being able to survive a 5/10, 5/11, or 6/12 attack all seem like reasonable targets. I don't really think that any one of them is more right than the others. While tinkering with numbers, there's another number we can consider - 50%. Is surviving half of the time a good benchmark?

    Maybe we could say that a model needs to survive a 5/10 shot 65% of the time, in which case DEF 13/ARM 12 is a victim (59%) but 13/14 is not (65%). 12/15 is a victim (58%) but 12/16 is not (66%).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stormpuppy_Infantry View Post
    CRA isn't a problem at all, for most CRA can threaten most troopers without a damage box easily. But most 'victim stat' troopers are quite easily killed by normal shot without aim and without CRA. Ten Long Gnners can make 5 CRAs and able to kill a 12/18 trooper by about 48% per each shot. But they can kill a 12/15 trooper by 42% per each shot even if they does not make C4A and make 10 individual shots.
    And this is really the issue with victim stats. Any model can die if the other player focuses on it aggressively enough, but having non-victim stats at least forces your opponent to make that effort. It uses up resources that could have gone elsewhere. It makes your opponent dedicate certain of their models to dealing with it. It might make your opponent keep a piece back because they need it alive as a counter. Victim stats make it harder to force those tactical considerations on your opponent because everything they have is a valid solution to the problem you are presenting.

    Which isn't to say that victim stats models are awful. Many of them are quite powerful. It's just that your opponent won't be stuck trying to find a way to kill them once they get within range.
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    Def 12 to 13 with same in ARMor is what I call a "victim stat", this doesn't make them terrible models by my estimation, I just expect there to be a fair amount of casualties a long the way and maybe it distracts my opponent enough from my "better" troops.
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    Side question, Is def is more valuable as a stat than ARM? a 1 point drop in def seems to warrant an almost 4 point increase in arm in your examples.
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    Quote Originally Posted by El-Ahrairah View Post
    Side question, Is def is more valuable as a stat than ARM? a 1 point drop in def seems to warrant an almost 4 point increase in arm in your examples.
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    Quote Originally Posted by El-Ahrairah View Post
    Side question, Is def is more valuable as a stat than ARM? a 1 point drop in def seems to warrant an almost 4 point increase in arm in your examples.
    Sort of.
    Single wound models live and die by their DEF, but a good ARM stops them dying to every single stray blast. (I'm not looking at you, Daughters, That'd kill you)
    Anything with more than 1 hit box like the ARM more because it won't be whittled away by those stray blasts as easily. If their ARM is high enough (ARM17/18), they won't get plinked away by straight POW 10s.

    edit:
    In terms of DEF there is also the point of double sixes always hitting, Regardless of MAT/RAT and that's before you get into diminishing returns.
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    Anything near 12/12 is bad.

    13/11 is better by quite alot most of the time.

    In legion grotesques die like flies. 12/13. swordsmen 14/13 are pretty good generally. legionaires at 12/17 are pretty good defensive line wise (but poor otherwise). Banshee sprays are Rat5 power 12, they murder things with 12 defense really well. Things with 14 def dodge out of the way easily.

    If a choir member has a good chance of beating your model to death, its poor defensively. Might still be good though grotesques can have stealth cheaply.

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    Quote Originally Posted by El-Ahrairah View Post
    Side question, Is def is more valuable as a stat than ARM? a 1 point drop in def seems to warrant an almost 4 point increase in arm in your examples.
    Armor is worth very little to single wound models until you're at least arm 17. Except against blast, but blast is relatively unpopular outside of places where it's boostable or high pow.

    Very few non-blast things in the game are under pow 10, and pow 10 kills arm 16 60% of the time. Many things are higher than pow 10, and charging models hit much harder than that almost always.

    On the other hand, defense is better. Def 13 means mat or rat 6 hits that same 60% of the time, and there's no equivalent of charging (besides cav charges). So def 13 is a lot like arm 16, but better. And def 13 still isn't great.

    To not be victim stats as single wound infantry I think you need arm 17+ or def 14+. Def 13 arm 16 might be good enough, not sure. Generally having skewed values is better than balanced ones.

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    Quote Originally Posted by El-Ahrairah View Post
    Side question, Is def is more valuable as a stat than ARM? a 1 point drop in def seems to warrant an almost 4 point increase in arm in your examples.
    I don't think it's "more valuable" but the scales are different. Consider the model I'm using with a MAT 5/P+S 10 attack. Using 7 as the "normal" die-roll, that would hit DEF 12 and wound ARM 16. Because 2d6 form a bell curve distribution, though, numbers at the edges are rolled much less often than numbers toward the center. 7's are rolled as frequently as 2, 3, and 4 combined. So when I was talking about a model with DEF 13/ARM 12, that's really saying 8-or-better to hit, 3 or better to wound. From DEF 12 to DEF 15, you see a pretty big change in probability with each point of increase, with steeply diminishing returns thereafter. From ARM 12, however, you're climbing UP the steep side of that bell curve so you need quite an increase in ARM to make a comparable difference. On the other hand, going from ARM 16 to ARM 17 has a comparable effect in this instance to going from DEF 12 to DEF 13.

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    The DEF vs. ARM comparison is a little complicated. Being missed is better than being hit for zero, because bad things still trigger on a hit. ARM is safer than DEF because more tools exist that bypass DEF. But in practice DEF is better for single wound models, because their ARM rarely gets good enough to shrug off direct hits anyway.

    What it really comes down to is, POW is much higher than RAT but DEF is often about the same as ARM. Attacks might have a 58% change to hit and a 100% chance to kill. +1 DEF would drop the hit chance to 42%, which means that 28% of the troopers that would have dead instead live. +1 ARM changes an auto-kill into a 3+ kill, which saves one trooper in 36.

    That said, if you are running forge guard, you might want to take another look at that ARM buff. It's a big game; exceptions exist to just about everything.
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    The reason why armor matters considerably less, as opposed to Defense, is because of the starting numbers for the opposition. Most MAT or RAT hover around 5-7, most average POW or P+S hover around 10-12. You are literally doubling the starting point in the math, but the Defense stat and Armor stats are all somewhere between 10-17...not a considerable spread.

    To make Armor more incrementally important you need to have the gulf between the starting attack and starting protection be on par with attack vs. defense. Thus 17 arm feels like it starts to become relevant.

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    Here we go. The 5-10 "Victim" Curve with 65% survival rate as the threshold.

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    When it comes to "victim stats" I think def helps much more. For defense I see 12 as victim since even a "bad" MAT/RAT stat hits you more often than not. Def 13 I see as "ok" since now you need to have decent MAT/RAT stats to consistently hit and 14 is what I think of as "good".

    For armor I think less of whether a model will get directly hit by an attack since lets face it, there are plenty of pow 10/12 weapons in the game so it isn't realistic for anything lower than arm 17/19 to be "victims". Otherwise just about every warrior model would be in that category. I view it more about whether or not you will die to scatters and blast damage. ARM 12 and under is bad since even weak pow 5/6 AOE's will kill you. Arm 13 makes you a bit more durable and arm 14 will generally protect you from all but boosted blast, or the highest pow 8 blasts. Note that this correlates with what I consider to be "tanky" infantry armor, since ARM 17-19 has good odds of surviving boosted blast damage.

    So if infantry have def/arm stats that are both 13 or below, I view them as victims.
    Some examples:

    Bloodtrackers are 14/11 and stealth so they die easy to blast, but they are otherwise fairly difficult to remove and take concentrated effort. I think everyone remembers how annoying 15/11 nyss in mk2 could get as well.
    Wolves of Orboros are 13/13 so if a blast lands on a group of them, prepare to lose a chunk. Their defense is also not quite high enough for most stuff to consistently miss them.
    Woldstalkers are 12/15 so most unboosted blasts will bounce right off them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stormpuppy_Infantry View Post
    Is there that much RAT 6/POW 12 attacks? The most common ranged weapon I can see is the military rifles(RAT 5/POW 11), and the next one is crossbow(RAT 6/POW 10). Can you give me the name of RAT 6 POW 12 attacks in the game? Especially for the units. All I can remember are Charger and Cyclone, but they are warjacks.
    Do they have to be ranged attacks? Because MAT 6 PS 12 is fairly common in melee.
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    It's very much a loaded term- I wouldn't try to define it. Basically- do you think this piece's stats are too low? Victim stats.

    A really good example (mostly discussed last edition since they're less on the table this time, but it transfers very neatly) was you'd hear a lot that Arcane Tempest Gun Mages had 'victim stats' because they went down fairly often, to blasts or accurate or aimed fire or to being engaged in melee. People aren't reporting that maliciously to beg for buffs either- they notice these models dying every game because they're expensive and provide a lot of damage and utility until they die. You notice when they die.

    There are a ton of models with way worse stats (using this thread's definition if 'likely to survive various hits') who never get called out for 'victim stats' because they don't come into the same amount of hate or because you're not paying a premium and expect them to die.

    It's just not a super meaningful construct.

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    Real question here:

    Is it more fun in a game if the odds are in favor of something happening when a player rolls the dice, or to have them in favor of nothing happening? To have both players throw dice at each other only to say, "Well, looks like I missed. Your turn!"

    Take X-Wing's father system. Originally dodge and attack dice had the same odds, but it lead to stalemating games where little happened and the players grew bored. So they dropped the odds on dodge dice, and it made for much more interesting games.


    SHOULD the average infantry in a game about steam-powered robots and wizards controlling them be 'victims' in terms of damage taken to kill them? In other words, shouldn't the average infantry be below that curve of survivability, with only rare exceptions being above it?

    Thinking of a single-wound infantry unit as one model compared to one warjack, it takes 6-10 successful attacks to kill that unit, about the same as a light/heavy warjack. Should a unit of infantry be more durable than the robots?

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    Quote Originally Posted by iamfanboy View Post
    Real question here:

    Is it more fun in a game if the odds are in favor of something happening when a player rolls the dice, or to have them in favor of nothing happening? To have both players throw dice at each other only to say, "Well, looks like I missed. Your turn!"
    It doesn't break down this cleanly with a game like this, because of trooper quality. Basically, the game is okay with your having a quickened unit of hardcore elven duelists be
    -very expensive
    -very fragile to attacks which don't need to go through their defense
    and
    -almost immune to targeted attacks.

    It's okay with Caine2 hitting anything which catches his eye. It becomes a problem if entire -armies- can't hit other armies, but in any given fist-fight it's okay if one model can't hit the other. It's also okay if in any given five model scrap, one side can take way more punishment.

    The balance point has to be about the whole engagement, not every roll of the dice. The way the game is set up, some troops are going to have very poor stats and some aren't, and that's fine.

  35. #35

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    It also depends a bit on the model in question. For instance the 13/11 on carrion thralls I consider to be really good, they're only 1 point per model so def 13 is solid.
    12/14 on bone grinders is fine. They shrug off a lot of blasts and the odd pow 10 on a low roll. 12/15 on slaughterhousers is terrible because their cost per model- even higher than the much-maligned stormblades. Funnily enough this statline is most common on expensive elite infantry.

  36. #36

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    Quote Originally Posted by vaildin View Post
    warspears are rat 6 pow 13.
    what warspears are you playing? mine are rat 5...

    for what i usually say victim stats are reletive to the model in question. typically arm below 15 and def below 13 for warriors, although even then it varies, casters i only really consider 14/14 or 14/15 as victim stat casters.

  37. #37

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    I think its important to point out, just because something has "victim"stats doesn't make it bad.

    Ossyan is 13/13 and no one ever complained about him being terrible before his errata at least.

  38. #38
    Annihilator Nyxu's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Dillon View Post
    I think its important to point out, just because something has "victim"stats doesn't make it bad.

    Ossyan is 13/13 and no one ever complained about him being terrible before his errata at least.
    Ossyan is 15/15?

  39. #39
    Destroyer of Worlds permanent's Avatar
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    in general, everything def 12 that isn't arm 18+ natively. the golden standard of infantry statline is 13-14, which survives pow 8 blasts a reasonable amount of the time (40%) and is hard for anything that isn't rat 6 or higher to hit.

    anything better than 13-14 is great, but in my mind 13-14 and still kinda 13-13 are the 'standards' that other statlines have to match up to for single wound infantry

  40. #40
    Destroyer of Worlds Stormpuppy_Infantry's Avatar
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    As GoLu said, the problem is not the trooper is invincible or not - because no one is invincible at all. If the most opponents are generally kill the troopers effortlessly, it will have the victim stat.

    Quote Originally Posted by El-Ahrairah View Post
    Side question, Is def is more valuable as a stat than ARM? a 1 point drop in def seems to warrant an almost 4 point increase in arm in your examples.
    No. DEF is not 'more valueable.' Usually DEF is the only stat to determine the durability for the units(because of generally bad DEF but high ARM and a big damage box, warbeasts and warjacks prefer the better ARM instead except for DEF 14 Warpwolf). It is true that one point of DEF is similar as 2 to 4 point of ARM, because ARM is useless that much.

    Unless ARM reaches to 17 and at least penetrated by 8+ against POW 10, it only gives blast protection which is not so important, nothing more. Many 3" blast can only catches two troopers at most in the most time because it is quite easy to spread them out. And most blast are easily deflected when the model has ARM 14+.

    That's because ranged weapon is too easily penetrate the armor. For example, against 13/13 typical defensive stat, RAT 5 POW 11 military rifle hits by 8+(41.6%) but damages by 3+(97.2%). So does one point of DEF or three point of ARM will saves the poor soldier better? The answer is, one point of DEF and make it DEF 14(27.006% vs 30.092% to be killed). The funny thing is that 14/12 or lower ARM is still better than 13/16. That's why DEF 14 needs a premium.

    Do it with 12/15 troopers. Then +3 ARM is better because their ARM is reach to 18 and able to block POW 11. +2 ARM(12/17) results the same output with +1 DEF(13/15).

    Quote Originally Posted by DivideBy0 View Post
    Do they have to be ranged attacks? Because MAT 6 PS 12 is fairly common in melee.
    Even a typical P+S 9~10 melee weapon can hurt a Shield Walled ARM 18 trooper by a charge, provided the trooper has enough MAT to hit the target. But most melee troops have at least MAT 6. Even at 5 it can be compared by RAT 5 units. So I don't think that it is meaningful to discuss about melee weapon. Victim stat is mostly concerned while you are deliver it too.

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Dillon View Post
    I think its important to point out, just because something has "victim"stats doesn't make it bad.

    Ossyan is 13/13 and no one ever complained about him being terrible before his errata at least.
    15/15, do you mean?
    Last edited by Stormpuppy_Infantry; 01-11-2017 at 09:53 PM.
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