I did a search but nothing conclusive came up, so I was wondering if anyone had calculated the probability of Drago's critical amputate under the following conditions;
base 2d6 to hit
2d6 + affinity [Vlad] = 3d6, dropping the lowest.
2d6 + affinity [Vlad] + boost = 4d6, dropping the lowest.
2d6 + affinity [Vlad] + Signs and Portents = 4d6, dropping two lowest.
2d6 + affinity [Vlad] + Signs and Portents + boost = 5d6, dropping two lowest.
(Obviously, there are instances where Drago can have signs and portents and not Affinity, but the probabilities are the same as just having the Affinity, as Affinity and Signs and Portents are the same effect.)
I know its a fairly heady task, but my grasp of statistics is weak at best, and am currently comparing Drago to a Kodiak [with use with Vlad].
Obviously, the dropping the lowest is the major complication (or is it, can you just regard a 3d6, dropping the lowest roll as a 2d6 roll for the purpose of Critical probability?)
On 3d6, dropping the lowest, a result of 6, 4, 4, means no crit, but 6, 6, 5 is. Or because the 'bonus dice' isn't distinctly observable, its not actually significant? i.e. If the 'bonus dice' in the first roll was the six, it just cost me a critical amputate. On the second roll, if the 'bonus dice' was a 6, it just gained me a critical amputate.
I hope this makes sense to some TheoryMachiners. I have enough knowledge to read Statistics others have written, but when it comes to constructing my own, my knowledge is lacking.
Many Thanks. -=C=-